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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

Estelle has changed little overall since the previous advisory due
to the combined effects of moderate northwesterly wind shear and
intrusions of dry mid-level air. The result has been the inability
of the cyclone to develop a persistent eye feature in microwave
satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been maintained at 60
kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB/SAB, which is supported by a 0432Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
that contained a couple of wind speeds of 50-55 kt.

The initial motion estimates remains a steady 290/08kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Estelle is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 72-96
hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest by day 5 when the
cyclone moves into a developing break in the subtropical ridge. The
latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this
track scenario. The new forecast track is essentially just an update
of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and then is shifted
slightly northward in line with the trend in the guidance.

Estelle still has about another 36 hours or so to strengthen, during
which time the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and
SSTs remain above 26 deg C. Thereafter, steady weakening is expected
due to SSTs decreasing below 25 deg C around 48 h and to 23 deg C by
96 h. The new intensity forecast to the similar to the previous NHC
intensity forecast, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 17.2N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 18.3N 117.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 18.8N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 19.2N 121.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 20.2N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 22.0N 130.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 25.5N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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