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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
900 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

There has not been much change to Estelle's satellite
presentation during the past several hours, with strong convection
continuing near the center along with a large curved band in the
southern and western semicircles.  Microwave data show the center
is on the northwestern edge of the deep convection: a sign that
there is still some shear affecting the cyclone.  Satellite
intensity estimates are basically unchanged since 6 hours ago, so
the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.

Weak-to-moderate northwesterly shear is forecast to continue for the
next couple of days while the cyclone moves over warm waters.
Strengthening seems likely then since the shear isn't prohibitive,
and all guidance indicates this upward trend.  Estelle should begin
to encounter marginally warm waters after day 3, which is likely to
initiate weakening. The latest forecast is very close to the
previous one, above the model consensus (which has had a low
bias this season) but close to the Florida State Super Ensemble
solution.

Microwave data has been helpful this evening with the initial
position and motion, with Estelle continuing to move west-
northwestward.  This general motion is expected for the next several
days while the storm remains beneath a rather persistent ridge over
the eastern Pacific.  Overall the model guidance is showing a
slightly stronger ridge in the longer term than the last model
cycle, and the official forecast is nudged more westward near the
end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 16.4N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 16.9N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 17.9N 116.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 18.4N 120.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 19.0N 124.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 20.3N 129.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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