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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Darby appears to be gradually weakening.  Although the annular
hurricane still has a well organized cloud pattern and distinct eye,
the cloud tops in the eyewall have warmed during the last several
hours.  The initial intensity for this advisory is lowered a little
to 85 kt. This intensity estimate is based on a blend of the Dvorak
Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University
of Wisconsin.  The hurricane is currently over cool, 25 deg C waters
and embedded in a fairly stable air mass.  Since Darby is expected
to move over even cooler water and into a drier air mass during the
next couple of days, steady weakening is predicted. After that time,
Darby will likely track over slightly warmer water, but it will also
be moving into an environment of increasing westerly shear, which
should allow for some continued weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and is in good agreement
with the intensity model consensus.

The hurricane is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 8 kt.  This
general heading with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
during the next few days as mid-level ridging remains in place to
the north of the tropical cyclone.  Beyond that time, a motion
slightly south of due west is forecast when the shallower system is
steered by the low- to mid-level flow.  The NHC official track
forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to come in line
with the latest consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 18.2N 126.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 18.3N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 18.6N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 19.0N 132.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 19.4N 134.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 20.1N 139.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 19.8N 143.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 18.9N 148.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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