ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016
Convective banding associated with Five-E has increased in
organization this evening. Accordingly, the SAB and TAFB Dvorak
current intensity numbers have increased to a 2.0 from both
agencies, corresponding to an intensity of 30 kt. Earlier
scatterometer data suggested higher winds than given by Dvorak
estimates, however, so the system may already be a tropical storm.
The environment in which Five-E is moving over and through - quite
warm SSTs, a very moist atmosphere, and moderate to low tropospheric
vertical shear - is likely to promote steady intensification during
the next three days. Around days 4 and 5, however, the cyclone
should be encountering the cool wake produced by Hurricanes Blas and
Celia. This sub-26 deg C water and more stable environment may
cause the system to gradually weaken at that time. The intensity
forecast is closest to an HWRF dynamical/SHIPS statistical model
blend through 72 h, and to SHIPS alone at days 4 and 5, and is very
similar to that from the previous advisory.
The tropical cyclone is moving at 320/8 kt, though the current
position and motion are somewhat uncertain because of the lack of
useful microwave imagery passes this evening. The system should
bend to a due west heading by tomorrow, as the deep-layer ridge to
its north builds in and strengthens. The model guidance is tightly
clustered through all five days and the NHC track prediction is
nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The tropical
cyclone will remain out to sea with no threat to land for the next
several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 15.7N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.1N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 16.2N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 16.0N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 16.0N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 16.8N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Landsea
NNNN