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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
300 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has developed
sufficiently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of
circulation.  On this basis, the system is being declared a tropical
depression, the fourth one in the past 10 days in the eastern North
Pacific basin.  The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a pair of
ASCAT passes from a few hours ago that showed winds in the 25-30 kt
range.

The initial motion of the depression is uncertain since it is still
in its formative stage, but the best estimate using microwave fixes
is 315/8 kt.  A turn to the west with a slight increase in forward
speed is expected to begin on Tuesday and persist through the
remainder of the period as mid-level ridging becomes better
established to the north of the cyclone.  This track takes the
system away from the coast of Mexico. The models are in relatively
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the
consensus aids.

Strengthening seems likely during the next 2 to 3 days while the
vertical shear is expected to be light to moderate, the atmosphere
relatively moist, and the waters beneath the cyclone sufficiently
warm. After that time, the cyclone is expected to move near the cold
water wake left behind from Blas and Celia and then ultimately cross
the 26 C isotherm in 4 to 5 days.  As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast shows the strength of the system leveling off in the 3 to 5
day time frame.  This prediction is a little above the intensity
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 15.3N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 16.0N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 16.2N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 16.1N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 16.8N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 17.7N 126.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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