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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016

After Celia was nearly devoid of deep convection earlier today,
infrared satellite images indicate that convection has made a bit of
comeback over the northern portion of the circulation.  The initial
intensity is being held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a partial ASCAT-B pass
from a few hours ago.

Celia is currently over cool 24 C waters, and although the waters
could warm a little along the forecast track, they are expected to
stay below 26 C.  In addition, the tropical cyclone will be moving
into an environment of increasing westerly shear and drier air.
These conditions should cause weakening, and the official forecast
shows Celia degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours.  The global
models suggest that the remnant low could persist for several days
over the central Pacific.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and is
being steered on the southwestern periphery of a sprawling mid-level
ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States.
A westward turn is expected in a day or two, when Celia becomes a
shallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The
models are tightly clustered, and the NHC official track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 19.9N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 20.8N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 21.5N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 21.9N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 22.2N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0000Z 23.6N 152.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z 24.5N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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