ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016
The convective cloud tops surrounding the large ragged eye of Celia
have been gradually warming since earlier today. Based on
subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB as well as
objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS, the intensity is reduced to
65 kt. Since the tropical cyclone will be moving over cooler
waters, into a stabler air mass, and westerly shear is forecast to
increase, a continued weakening trend is expected. Celia should
weaken into a tropical depression by the time it reaches the
Central Pacific Hurricane Basin. The official intensity forecast
is a little below the latest model consensus and a little above the
latest LGEM guidance.
The large eye has been moving between west-northwest and northwest
at around 10 kt. There is no reason to make any significant
changes to the previous NHC forecast track. A mid-level
subtropical ridge is predicted by the global models to remain to
the north of the cyclone for the next several days. Celia is
likely to become an increasingly shallow system, so later in the
forecast period, it should turn toward the west following the
low-level flow. The official forecast is close to the consensus of
the dynamical guidance, which are fairly tightly clustered. This
is basically an extension/update of the previous NHC track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 18.0N 130.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 18.9N 131.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 20.0N 133.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 21.0N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 21.9N 138.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 22.7N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 23.5N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 24.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN