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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

After an early morning burst of deep, cold-topped thunderstorms over
the center, dry air entrainment has once again taken its toll on the
inner-core convective structure of Celia. The CDO has eroded due to
a narrow band of dry air wrapping all the way into the center, which
is noted in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Celia
has now taken the appearance of a tropical cyclone with a banding
eye feature. Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65
kt from SAB, and the consensus of various objective satellite
intensity estimates is 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set to 70 kt, making Celia the second hurricane of the
2016 eastern North Pacific season. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii are
based on 1808Z ASCAT-B wind data.

The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Celia should move westward for the next 24 h along the southern
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, followed by turn to the
west-northwest on day 2 as a shortwave trough briefly weakens the
ridge. By day 3 and beyond, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen
and force Celia back on a westward track. The latest NHC model
guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so
the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous
advisory and lies close to the TCVE consensus track model.

Celia still has another 24 h or so to strengthen while the vertical
wind shear remains light and sea-surface temperatures are above
26.5C. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs ahead of the hurricane should induce
gradual weakening, but not as fast as normal due to the light shear
conditions that are expected to continue through day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast remains above the intensity consensus model IVCN,
and continues to follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 15.0N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 15.1N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 15.3N 126.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 15.8N 128.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 16.6N 130.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 18.5N 133.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 20.2N 137.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 21.1N 142.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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