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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The center of Celia is moving over warmer water west of the cool
wake of Hurricane Blas.  In response, the central dense overcast has
become much better defined with cloud tops colder than -80C just
south of the center.  In addition, recent microwave images suggest a
small mid-level eye is forming under the overcast.  Subjective
satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 55 kt from
TAFB, and there was a recent CIMMS AMSU estimate of 80 kt. The
initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, and this could be
conservative.

Celia has continued to accelerate and the initial motion is now
280/13.  A westward motion south of a building subtropical ridge is
expected to continue for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a
west-northwestward motion as the storm approaches a break in the
ridge.  The guidance remains tightly clustered and the new forecast
track is near the center of the guidance envelope near the various
consensus models.  The new track is a little faster than the
previous track based on current trends and the guidance.

Celia should be in an environment of light vertical wind shear for
the next five days, so the intensity forecast is dependent mainly
on sea surface temperatures.  The cyclone is expected to move
over SSTs near 28C for the next 48 hours or so, and steady to
possibly rapid strengthening is expected.  After that, the SSTs
gradually decrease along the forecast track until they are near 25C
at 120 hours.  This should cause Celia to gradually weaken. The new
intensity forecast shows a faster intensification than the previous
forecast, with Celia becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours.  The
forecast from 48-120 hours is unchanged from the previous forecast.
Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS
model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 14.4N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 14.8N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 14.8N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 14.8N 123.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 14.9N 125.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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