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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The cool wake from Hurricane Blas continues to affect Celia.  The
convective pattern is quite ragged, with a small CDO feature but
little in the way of convective banding.  The initial intensity is
set to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates.  Celia should begin moving over warmer waters
during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for an increase
in convective organization and some strengthening.  Celia is
forecast to peak in about 72 hours and then move over cooler waters
again, which should result in slow weakening late in the period. The
new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS model and is
a bit above the latest intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Celia has accelerated
since the previous advisory.  A westward motion to the south of a
building subtropical ridge is expected to begin later today and
continue through 48 hours.  After that time, the cyclone should
reach the southwestern edge of the ridge and turn west-northwestward
at a slightly slower speed.  The new NHC track forecast is close to
the previous one through 48 hours, but a little faster given the
quicker initial motion.  At days 3 through 5 the NHC track has been
shifted a little to the south of the previous one and lies slightly
north of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 14.2N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.5N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 14.7N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 14.7N 122.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 15.7N 128.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 17.1N 131.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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