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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016

The deep convection associated with the area of low pressure well
southwest of Manzanillo has become much better organized during the
past 6 to 12 hours, and this system is now classified as a tropical
cyclone.  Satellite imagery shows a large convective canopy with
multiple curved bands.  The estimated center position is near the
eastern edge of the deep convection and the initial intensity is set
to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening
during the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of
29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant
moisture.  The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a
tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and becoming a hurricane on
Monday.  The system is expected to peak in intensity in 3 to 4 days
near major hurricane strength before gradual weakening begins as the
center moves over progressively cooler waters.  The official
forecast is above the intensity consensus and close to a blend of
the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 given the
recent formation of the system.  The dominant steering mechanism
through the forecast period will be the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern
United States.  This pattern should guide the cyclone on a general
westward to west-northwestward motion during the next 5 days.  Most
of the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario
with the exception of the GFDL model, which is well to the right.
There is some along-track spread between the generally slower GFS
model and the faster ECMWF and HWRF through much of the period. The
across-track spread increases in 4-5 days with the GFS and GEFS
ensemble mean showing more of a poleward turn as they erode the
ridge more, while the ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and UKMET have a
stronger ridge and more westward motion. The NHC track forecast is
close to a blend of these two camps through the forecast period and
is of about average confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 11.1N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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