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HURRICANE OTTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
2100 UTC TUE NOV 22 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SAN ANDRES ISLAND.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO SANDY BAY SIRPI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NARGANA TO COLON
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF COLON TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER
* BLUEFIELDS TO SANDY BAY SIRPI

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...USUALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA OR COSTA RICA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PROVIDENCIA
ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTTO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N  79.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N  79.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  79.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.6N  80.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.9N  81.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.0N  82.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.0N  83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.4N  88.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z  9.8N  91.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z  9.5N  96.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N  79.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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