ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
400 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016

There has not been much overall change to the Otto's satellite
presentation today.  While the convection temporarily weakened
this morning, thunderstorm activity has rebuilt near the center
during the afternoon.  Satellite intensity estimates range from 55
to 65 kt, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt.  An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft should be in Otto this evening to
obtain a better estimate.

The GFS and the ECMWF models continue to insist that shear near Otto
should decrease this evening and tomorrow due to the nearby
upper-level flow changing to a more easterly direction. Thus Otto
still has the chance to become a hurricane again before landfall on
Thursday, and the official forecast reflects this scenario.  Otto
should abruptly weaken after landfall, with a more gradual weakening
anticipated over the eastern Pacific due to increasing easterly
shear. The intensity guidance is showing a slower demise of Otto at
long range, so the intensity forecast has been boosted slightly from
the previous one at days 3 and 4.

Otto is finally on the move, with the latest satellite fixes
indicating a westward motion at about 6 kt.  A strengthening
mid-level ridge to the north of Otto should force the storm to move
a bit faster to the west on Thursday, with an even faster
south-of-west motion forecast over the weekend.  Very few changes
were required to the track prediction on this advisory since the
model guidance remains in very good agreement.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 11.2N  81.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 11.3N  82.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 11.2N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 10.9N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/1800Z 10.5N  88.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  26/1800Z  9.5N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z  9.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 10.5N 102.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN