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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1000 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016

Otto has lost some organization since yesterday.  The last Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance mission reported that the eyewall has
dissipated, along with a 6-mb rise in pressure.  Still, the maximum
700-mb flight-level winds were 68 kt, with SFMR winds of about 50
kt.  The initial intensity is conservatively reduced to 60 kt for
this advisory.

It appears that the southeasterly shear has been a little stronger
than forecast yesterday, which has allowed some drier air to mix
into the cyclone.  This is evident in the inner-core data from the
Air Force mission, which showed rather low dewpoints at 700 mb.  The
global models are suggesting the shear will decrease before
landfall, and Otto should be moving over warmer waters later today
that have not be subjected to any storm-forced upwelling.  These
factors suggest some restrengthening is possible overnight and
Thursday, which is consistent with the bulk of the guidance models.
Stronger shear over the eastern Pacific is expected to cause gradual
weakening of Otto in that basin, with remnant low status likely by
day 5.  The official intensity forecast has been reduced somewhat
from the last one but still calls for Otto to be a hurricane at
landfall.

Aircraft fixes show that Otto continues to move toward the
west-northwest at 4 kt.  A building mid-level ridge to the north of
Otto should cause the tropical cyclone to turn westward and
accelerate tonight.  Late in the period, a motion south of due west
is indicated as the mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern
Pacific.  Model guidance is tightly clustered on this solution, and
the latest official forecast is very close to the previous one.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 11.1N  80.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 11.2N  81.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 11.3N  83.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 11.2N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/1200Z 10.8N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  26/1200Z 10.0N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z  9.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 10.0N 102.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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