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HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1000 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite imagery indicate that the intensification of Otto has
stopped since the last advisory.  The aircraft reported a central
pressure near 988 mb with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting, at
best, an intensity of 65 kt.  In addition, satellite imagery shows a
decrease in the coverage of the associated convection.  The
arrested development might be due to dry air entrainment in the
eastern semicircle as suggested by water vapor imagery and recent
microwave overpasses.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/3.  A mid- to
upper-level ridge building over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Mexico should steer Otto generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours, which would bring the
center inland over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica during
that time.  After 48 hours, the dynamical models forecast the ridge
to build westward over the eastern Pacific Ocean and steer Otto
westward or west-southwestward to the south of El Salvador,
Guatemala, and eastern Mexico.  The forecast guidance is in good
agreement with the direction of the track, but there remains some
spread in the forward speed.  The new forecast track is again a
little to the north and a little faster than the previous track,
and it lies near the center of forecast guidance envelope.

It is unclear how long the current arrested development will
continue, as most of the intensity guidance forecasts strengthening
before landfall.  The new intensity forecast is based on the
premise that intensification should resume after 12 hours and
continue until landfall, with Otto forecast to make landfall as a
category 1 hurricane.  The cyclone should weaken significantly
while crossing Central America, and as shown in the previous
forecast strong shear should prevent re-intensification over the
Pacific.

The latest forecast track and wind radii require hurricane warnings
for portions of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 10.7N  79.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 10.8N  80.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 11.1N  81.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 11.2N  83.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 11.1N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  26/0000Z 10.5N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC
 96H  27/0000Z 10.0N  93.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 10.0N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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