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HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
800 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE NICOLE CLOSING IN ON
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 65.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 65.2 West. Nicole is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today.
On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass near Bermuda
later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although a gradual weakening
is forecast, Nicole is expected to remain a major hurricane when it
moves near Bermuda today.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).  A sustained
wind of 51 mph (85 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was
recently reported at Pearl Island in Bermuda.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
very soon. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the
island.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening.

SURF:  Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United States
east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days.
These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office
for more information.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

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