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HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
200 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...POWERFUL NICOLE TO STRIKE BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 66.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 66.2 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today. On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass
over or near Bermuda later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
expected overnight, and Nicole is forecast to be at major hurricane
strength when it moves near Bermuda. Some weakening is expected to
begin later on Thursday.

Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend
outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda this
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin soon.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening.

SURF:  Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United States
east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days.
These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office
for more information.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda overnight and
early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

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