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HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole has rapidly intensified during the day, with a pinhole eye
apparent in satellite and microwave imagery.  Although the eye has
recently become obscured, Dvorak satellite estimates support an
initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.  All of the guidance
suggests that the shear near Nicole should increase during the next
couple of days since the tropical cyclone will be in an environment
of increasingly strong upper-level northerly winds.  Thus Nicole
is probably near its peak intensity, and slow weakening is forecast
from Friday through the weekend.  The large-scale environment
could become more conducive for re-intensification by days 4 or 5,
and some restrengthening is shown around that time.  The new
intensity forecast is very close to the previous one, slightly above
the model consensus.

Nicole has moved very little during the past several hours.  The
hurricane will likely begin to drift southward by tomorrow
afternoon due to steering from the western side of a mid-level
trough.  Thereafter, Nicole could gradually turn toward the
southwest, west, and northwest over the next few days around a
ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean.  There is better agreement in
the guidance than yesterday, although the ECMWF remains a bit of an
outlier solution to the east.  Since a stronger system would likely
respond more to the deep-layer northerly flow, the new NHC track is
shifted a bit to the south of the previous forecast in a couple of
days, but ends up close to the last NHC advisory by day 5.

A climate note:  This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W.  Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 27.4N  65.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 27.3N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 26.8N  65.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 26.1N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 25.5N  64.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 26.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 27.5N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 29.0N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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