Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane MATTHEW


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016               
0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  1   4( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  1   8( 9)  10(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  3   7(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  3  11(14)   6(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  2  20(22)  33(55)   5(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 12  36(48)   3(51)   X(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  5  52(57)  16(73)   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X  10(10)  10(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  4  52(56)  22(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X  11(11)  20(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  5  57(62)  17(79)   1(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X  14(14)  17(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 19  63(82)   5(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
SURF CITY NC   50  1  31(32)   9(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 38  51(89)   2(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
WILMINGTON NC  50  1  39(40)   4(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 62  33(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  3  59(62)   4(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X  28(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 63  16(79)   X(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
FLORENCE SC    50  2   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34 28   5(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 78  20(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
LITTLE RIVER   50  5  57(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
LITTLE RIVER   64  1  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 87  11(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 14  53(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  2  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC  50 47  33(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
GEORGETOWN SC  64 11  35(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHARLESTON SC  50 77   6(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
CHARLESTON SC  64 43   8(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50 53   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64 18   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  8   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAVANNAH GA    50 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAVANNAH GA    64  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN