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Hurricane MATTHEW


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
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HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  10(21)   2(23)   X(23)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  14(27)   6(33)   X(33)   X(33)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  16(24)  11(35)   2(37)   X(37)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  16(23)  14(37)   2(39)   X(39)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  18(26)  13(39)   2(41)   X(41)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   2( 2)  14(16)  23(39)  11(50)   1(51)   X(51)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  24(43)  10(53)   2(55)   X(55)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   5( 5)  23(28)  26(54)  11(65)   2(67)   X(67)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   9(26)   X(26)   X(26)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   5( 5)  26(31)  15(46)   6(52)   1(53)   X(53)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   6( 6)  22(28)   9(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   6( 6)  29(35)  22(57)   8(65)   1(66)   X(66)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   8( 8)  36(44)  18(62)   7(69)   1(70)   X(70)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)   6(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  1  14(15)  39(54)  17(71)   5(76)   1(77)   X(77)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)  15(15)  17(32)   5(37)   X(37)   X(37)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)

CHARLESTON SC  34  2  30(32)  37(69)   9(78)   3(81)   X(81)   X(81)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   2( 2)  28(30)  14(44)   3(47)   X(47)   X(47)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)  14(14)  10(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  2  45(47)  30(77)   5(82)   2(84)   X(84)   X(84)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   5( 5)  37(42)   6(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   1( 1)  18(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

AUGUSTA GA     34  1   8( 9)  19(28)   5(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAVANNAH GA    34  3  55(58)  23(81)   3(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X  11(11)  33(44)   4(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   3( 3)  17(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

KINGS BAY GA   34 12  77(89)   5(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
KINGS BAY GA   50  1  54(55)  13(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X  29(29)  12(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

WAYCROSS GA    34  3  56(59)  13(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)   1(75)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X  11(11)   6(17)   X(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MAYPORT NS FL  34 27  67(94)   2(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  2  64(66)   8(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X  41(41)  10(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)

JACKSONVILLE   34 17  73(90)   3(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
JACKSONVILLE   50  2  54(56)   9(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X  25(25)   6(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 19  55(74)   3(77)   1(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  2  12(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

DAYTONA BEACH  34 93   6(99)   X(99)   X(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH  50 46  41(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
DAYTONA BEACH  64 15  49(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)

THE VILLAGES   34 58  22(80)   1(81)   1(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
THE VILLAGES   50  4  14(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
THE VILLAGES   64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ORLANDO FL     34 93   2(95)   X(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
ORLANDO FL     50 43  10(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
ORLANDO FL     64  9   9(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 90   2(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 64   4(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)

PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 90   2(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
PATRICK AFB    64 62   3(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   1(66)   X(66)

FT PIERCE FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT PIERCE FL   50 89   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
FT PIERCE FL   64 41   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   1(42)   X(42)

W PALM BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
W PALM BEACH   50 25   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   1(26)
W PALM BEACH   64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

FT LAUDERDALE  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MIAMI FL       34  8   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   2(13)   2(15)

MARATHON FL    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   3( 6)

KEY WEST FL    34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

NAPLES FL      34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)

FT MYERS FL    34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)

VENICE FL      34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

TAMPA FL       34 12   7(19)   3(22)   1(23)   X(23)   1(24)   1(25)
TAMPA FL       50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  5  20(25)   3(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)

ST MARKS FL    34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)

APALACHICOLA   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

GRAND BAHAMA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND BAHAMA   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND BAHAMA   64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)

ANDROS         34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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