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HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 73.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Barahona westward to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch
has also been issued for the north coast of the Dominican Republic
from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.  A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of the Bahamas later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 73.9 West.  Matthew is
moving toward the north-northwest at 6 mph (9 km/h).  This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north on Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach these areas by this evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic within the warning area by this evening.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are also possible in
the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches.  Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

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