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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...LARGE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 63.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 13.9 North,
longitude 63.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 15 mph
(24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track,
the center of Matthew will continue to move away from the Windward
Islands tonight, and be over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night or
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands
within the warning area. These condition should begin to subside
during the next several hours.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.  These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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