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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  64.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  64.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  64.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.2N  64.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.3N  62.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.9N  57.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  25SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.9N  49.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  30NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 50.7N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 150SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 240SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N  64.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/SULLIVAN/GERHARDT/SCHICHTEL


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