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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KARL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  59.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..210NE   0SE   0SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  59.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  58.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.2N  61.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.9N  63.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.6N  64.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N  64.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.5N  58.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 40.0N  47.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 47.5N  33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  59.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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