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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  42.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......200NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  42.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  41.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N  44.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N  47.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.6N  49.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N  52.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N  57.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.9N  62.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  42.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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