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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

The cloud pattern on satellite is better organized than 24 hours
ago and much better than 2 days ago. Although the center is still
located on the southern edge of the convection, the cloud pattern is
more symmetric, and the outflow is better defined.  Tonight's
upward trend in organization was confirmed by data from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane that just left the cyclone. The estimated
minimum central pressure was 999 mb, and there were numerous
reports of 45- to 55-kt winds with a peak of 60 kt at 850 mb.  A
NOAA plane just arrived to the storm and measured a flight-level
wind of 61 kt.  These winds support an initial intensity of 50 kt.

Karl has the opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of
days while is moving over warmer water and relatively low shear.
After that time, Karl should interact with the baroclinic
mid-latitude flow, and in 3 days, Karl is expected to be a powerful
extratropical cyclone. It will likely become absorbed by a
much larger cyclone by day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar
to the previous one, but this one reflects a little stronger cyclone
in the short term based on the initial intensity and the current
organization trend.

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite give a motion of
325 degrees at 13 kt. Karl is already located on the western edge of
the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force the cyclone to
turn northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. Soon thereafter, Karl
is forecast to become embedded within a fast-moving westerly flow
ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This should result in a
sharp turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The
new track forecast brings the core of Karl a little bit closer
to Bermuda in about 24 hours.  The NHC forecast is in the middle of
the tightly packed model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 27.9N  64.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 29.5N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 31.5N  64.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 33.5N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 37.0N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 48.0N  35.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE


$$
Forecaster Avila

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