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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deja vu all over again.  Julia lost all its deep convection tonight
and now consists of a very tight swirl of low clouds.  Assuming
that the cyclone is spinning down, the initial intensity has been
lowered to 30 kt. I would not be surprised if another round of
convection develops near the center despite the strong westerly
shear, but the cyclone will likely become decapitated again by
strong upper-level westerlies.

Given that the strong shear will likely persist for the next 2 days
or so, weakening is indicated in the NHC forecast. By the time the
shear is expected to decrease, it is probably too late for the
cyclone to recover, and in a couple of days, if not sooner, Julia is
expected to be a remnant low.

There has been no significant motion during the past day or so,
and basically the cyclone has been meandering while it is trapped in
very light steering currents. This pattern is not expected to
change, and Julia or its remnants will likely continue milling
around for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 30.2N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 30.2N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 30.5N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 31.0N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 31.5N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z 32.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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