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TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida
east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection,
accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to
the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while
the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than
about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the
afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the
system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

The motion of the system has been north-northwestward today, with
the convective asymmetry likely contributing to a track to the right
of much of the objective track guidance.  That trend is forecast to
continue for the next day or so, and the official forecast lies to
the right of the model consensus - leaning in the direction of the
HWRF.  With the center expected to remain over land, and westerly
shear of about 20 kt expected over the next day or so, little change
in strength is expected until the system pushes farther inland and
begins to weaken.  Nevertheless, a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds should continue to push northward along
the coast within the warning area tonight and early Wednesday.

The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near
10 inches along and east of where the center moves. These rains
could result in flash flooding. Also, Doppler weather radar data
during the past few hours indicate a significant improvement in the
curved banding features to the north and east of the center. As a
result, an isolated tornado or two will be possible overnight and on
Wednesday when some of the stronger rainbands move onshore across
northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 30.3N  81.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  14/1200Z 31.2N  81.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/0000Z 31.8N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/1200Z 32.1N  82.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  16/0000Z 32.3N  82.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Franklin

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