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TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016
0300 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  51.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 140SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  51.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  51.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.9N  52.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 140SE   0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.9N  53.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.4N  54.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE   0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.8N  54.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...180NE  80SE  30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N  49.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE  80SE  30SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 48.0N  38.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 56.5N  25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N  51.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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