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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2016
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 8(23)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 4(19)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 4(21)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) 8(27) 4(31)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 11(27) 7(34) 3(37)
CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 13(30) 8(38) 3(41)
PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
WORCESTER MA 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 10(30) 14(44) 6(50) 3(53)
WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 1 5( 6) 14(20) 12(32) 12(44) 7(51) 2(53)
SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BOSTON MA 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 9(27) 15(42) 7(49) 3(52)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
HYANNIS MA 34 1 9(10) 19(29) 10(39) 15(54) 7(61) 3(64)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 2(22)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
NANTUCKET MA 34 2 13(15) 21(36) 11(47) 14(61) 5(66) 4(70)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 11(17) 7(24) 2(26)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 1 9(10) 20(30) 12(42) 14(56) 6(62) 3(65)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 6(19) 1(20)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 10(13) 21(34) 14(48) 12(60) 5(65) 1(66)
BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 3(19) X(19)
BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 9(12) 21(33) 14(47) 12(59) 5(64) 2(66)
NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19)
NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HARTFORD CT 34 2 7( 9) 18(27) 13(40) 12(52) 6(58) 1(59)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
NEW LONDON CT 34 2 12(14) 22(36) 13(49) 13(62) 5(67) 2(69)
NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 5(22) X(22)
NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ALBANY NY 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 9(29) 4(33) 2(35)
ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 5( 6) 14(20) 13(33) 9(42) 6(48) 1(49)
POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
MONTAUK POINT 34 3 16(19) 25(44) 13(57) 11(68) 6(74) 1(75)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 11(22) 4(26) 2(28)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
ISLIP NY 34 4 14(18) 25(43) 14(57) 11(68) 4(72) 1(73)
ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 10(23) 3(26) 1(27)
ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 4 12(16) 22(38) 14(52) 11(63) 5(68) X(68)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 3(21) X(21)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 11(14) 19(33) 14(47) 11(58) 5(63) 1(64)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17) 1(18)
NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 3 10(13) 18(31) 14(45) 12(57) 5(62) X(62)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15)
NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 4 9(13) 17(30) 14(44) 10(54) 5(59) X(59)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 5 13(18) 20(38) 14(52) 10(62) 5(67) 1(68)
NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20)
NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 2 5( 7) 13(20) 10(30) 10(40) 4(44) 1(45)
ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PHILADELPHIA 34 4 9(13) 16(29) 12(41) 11(52) 4(56) 1(57)
PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 11 12(23) 18(41) 13(54) 9(63) 3(66) 1(67)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 2(19) 1(20)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 3 4( 7) 8(15) 8(23) 7(30) 3(33) X(33)
DOVER DE 34 7 8(15) 14(29) 11(40) 9(49) 3(52) X(52)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 4 4( 8) 9(17) 8(25) 7(32) 3(35) 1(36)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
WASHINGTON DC 34 3 3( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 16 8(24) 14(38) 11(49) 8(57) 3(60) 1(61)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14)
CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 33 5(38) 8(46) 7(53) 9(62) 2(64) X(64)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 5 4( 9) 10(19) 7(26) 7(33) 3(36) X(36)
PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WALLOPS CDA 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
RICHMOND VA 34 4 2( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 5(19) 2(21) X(21)
DANVILLE VA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK NAS 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK VA 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
RALEIGH NC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ROCKY MT NC 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CHERRY PT NC 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11)
NEW RIVER NC 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
SURF CITY NC 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
LITTLE RIVER 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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