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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
0300 UTC SAT SEP 03 2016
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 5(13)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 5(20)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 9(23) 3(26)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 9(24) 4(28)
PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 11(27) 8(35) 4(39)
WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 11(30) 8(38) 2(40)
SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 10(24) 10(34) 3(37)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 11(31) 10(41) 4(45)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) 10(35) 12(47) 4(51)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 13(37) 9(46) 3(49)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 19(32) 17(49) 7(56) 2(58)
BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 19(31) 15(46) 8(54) 2(56)
NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 14(39) 7(46) 2(48)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
NEW LONDON CT 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 18(30) 15(45) 8(53) 2(55)
NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14)
NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 9(20) 5(25) 2(27)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 14(34) 7(41) 1(42)
POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 20(35) 15(50) 8(58) 2(60)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 2(18)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ISLIP NY 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 21(37) 19(56) 6(62) 2(64)
ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 1(21)
ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 22(37) 18(55) 6(61) 1(62)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) 1(18)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 21(34) 17(51) 7(58) 2(60)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) X(15)
NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 21(34) 18(52) 5(57) 2(59)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14)
NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 20(33) 19(52) 5(57) 2(59)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 22(39) 19(58) 5(63) 2(65)
NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 1(21)
NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) 17(40) 5(45) 1(46)
ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 19(33) 19(52) 5(57) 1(58)
PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15)
PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 6( 7) 15(22) 21(43) 18(61) 5(66) 1(67)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 14(24) 4(28) X(28)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 16(36) 5(41) 1(42)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
DOVER DE 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 15(33) 21(54) 5(59) X(59)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 17(39) 5(44) 1(45)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
WASHINGTON DC 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 9(17) 14(31) 5(36) 1(37)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 10(11) 14(25) 16(41) 20(61) 4(65) X(65)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 12(21) 2(23) 1(24)
CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 13(15) 14(29) 13(42) 19(61) 4(65) X(65)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 12(22) 2(24) X(24)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 11(24) 17(41) 5(46) X(46)
PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
WALLOPS CDA 34 3 13(16) 11(27) 11(38) 18(56) 4(60) 1(61)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 3(20) 1(21)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 9(17) 2(19) 1(20)
RICHMOND VA 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 12(27) 4(31) 1(32)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
DANVILLE VA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
NORFOLK NAS 34 8 9(17) 5(22) 7(29) 13(42) 3(45) 1(46)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NORFOLK VA 34 12 8(20) 5(25) 6(31) 12(43) 4(47) X(47)
NORFOLK VA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 17 10(27) 4(31) 5(36) 12(48) 3(51) X(51)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10)
OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 39 5(44) 2(46) 3(49) 7(56) 3(59) X(59)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
RALEIGH NC 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
ROCKY MT NC 34 5 2( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 6(19) 2(21) X(21)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 89 3(92) X(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 11 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32)
CHERRY PT NC 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
CHERRY PT NC 50 7 X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEW RIVER NC 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
NEW RIVER NC 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SURF CITY NC 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FLORENCE SC 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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