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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

...HERMINE RACING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 77.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from south of Surf
City, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Sandy Hook
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward
* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Sandy Hook to west of Watch Hill

Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should
monitor the progress of this system.  Additional watches or
warnings may be require for portions of this area on Saturday.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located inland over North Carolina near latitude 34.9 North,
longitude 77.5 West. Hermine is moving toward the northeast near 22
mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with
some decrease in forward speed through Saturday night. A gradual
turn toward the north is expected on Sunday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Hermine will continue to move across eastern North
Carolina during the next several hours and emerge over the Atlantic
later today.

Recent satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.  These strong winds are
confined to an area over the Atlantic waters well to the southeast
of the center. Strengthening is forecast after the center moves
offshore, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the south and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by
late Sunday or Sunday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 24 hours in the Hampton
Roads area.  Persons within this area should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water.  Promptly
follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local
officials.  There is also the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations
between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport,
Connecticut.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm
Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify
for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under
development by the National Weather Service and planned for
operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina coast...1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet
Elsewhere from the NC/VA border to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from east-central to eastern North
Carolina, far southeast Virginia into the coastal sections of the
Delmarva peninsula and coastal southern New Jersey through Sunday.
These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods.
Heavy rains may affect coastal northern New Jersey and Long Island
Sunday night into early Monday.  Rainbands well to the south of
Hermine may produce additional isolated rainfall totals of 3 to 5
inches over north Florida tonight into early Saturday.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two remains possible overnight across the
North Carolina Outer Banks.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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