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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
100 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 88.1W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida
through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression has been drifting westward during the past few hours, but
a slow northward motion is expected later today. A faster
north-northeast motion is forecast to begin this afternoon or
evening. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone
will approach the northwest Florida coast in the watch area on
Thursday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.  Strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today, and be near hurricane strength
by the time landfall occurs on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the
Hurricane Watch area by Thursday afternoon.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of the Tropical Storm Watch
area by Thursday afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a
possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours
along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located
within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water.  Promptly follow
any instructions from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday,
with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches.  These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Storm
total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of
the Florida peninsula through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches possible.  This rainfall may cause flooding and flash
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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