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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...HERMINE HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 87.4W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been extended
westward along the Florida panhandle to Destin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West.  Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall
occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon.  Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday.  These rains
may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida.  A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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