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HURRICANE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
2100 UTC THU SEP 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
UNITED STATES ATLANTIC COAST NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF DUCK TO SANDY
HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT
SOUTHWARD...
AND THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO MEXICO BEACH

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* WEST OF MEXICO BEACH TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* WEST OF MEXICO BEACH TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO DUCK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK TO SANDY HOOK
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD
* SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UNITED STATES NORTHEAST COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  85.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  85.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  85.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.2N  83.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.4N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N  78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.3N  75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 38.5N  71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 39.5N  70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  85.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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