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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.1W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.1W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  88.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.4N  87.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.9N  86.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N  85.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.3N  83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.2N  76.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N  70.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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