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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not find many
changes to the depression this morning, with maximum believable SFMR
winds of about 30 kt.  This value will remain the initial wind
speed.  Satellite images indicate the cyclone continues to struggle
to produce convection, likely due to moderate shear and plentiful
dry air aloft.  The environment is forecast to become more conducive
over the next 24 hours, with a slight decrease in shear and
an increase in moisture.  Thus, the latest forecast still shows the
depression becoming a tropical storm by Tuesday.  Most of the
guidance suggests the cyclone will strengthen in a couple of days
while it moves northeastward away from the Carolinas as it moves
right along the Gulf Stream.  Since the previous forecast is almost
identical to the new model consensus, no significant changes are
made to the final NHC intensity forecast.

The depression is moving northwestward, now at about 6 kt.  The
cyclone should slow down and begin to turn to the north as it
reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina
coast.  In 36 to 48 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving
through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the
ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the
westerlies.  The guidance is in fairly good agreement, and
the latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous one.  The
cyclone should be absorbed within a large extratropical cyclone in
about 4 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 33.2N  73.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 33.8N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 34.4N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 35.1N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 36.2N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 39.0N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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