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TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016

Gaston is practically devoid of deep convection, and it is assumed
that a significant spindown has occurred today.  Under this
assumption, the advisory intensity is set at 45 kt which is
in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB.
Since the cyclone will be moving over the colder waters to the
north of the Azores and through an environment of strong shear, the
forecast calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low in
24 hours, and this event may occur even sooner than that.

Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes, along with
observations from Flores in the Azores, indicate that the motion is
around 070/15 kt.  Gaston should curve gradually toward the
northeast, ahead of a broad trough in the mid-latitude westerlies,
until dissipation.  The official track forecast is very close to the
dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 39.6N  30.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 40.3N  28.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 42.1N  25.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 44.3N  21.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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