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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

...EARL WEAKENING OVER MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Roca Partido northward to Tecolutla, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast as Earl moves into
the mountains of Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate
by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly over water to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions over the warning area should end
later this morning.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to
12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions of
the Mexican states of Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala
and Veracruz through Saturday night. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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