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HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
0300 UTC THU AUG 04 2016
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  87.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  87.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  86.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.7N  89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.2N  91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N  93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N  95.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.0N  98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  87.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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