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TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
2100 UTC WED AUG 03 2016
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
* BAY ISLANDS...HONDURAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER.
* NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  86.0W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  86.0W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  85.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N  87.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N  90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.2N  92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N  94.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N  97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  86.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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