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Tropical Storm EARL


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TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  81.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  81.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  80.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N  83.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N  88.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N  94.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N  98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N  81.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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