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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

The convective pattern of Earl has changed little in both
conventional and microwave satellite imagery since the last
reconnaissance flight a few hours ago. Therefore, the initial
intensity is being maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. Earl
should begin to weaken shortly after the center moves inland, and
continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. The cyclone could
degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours if it moves a little
faster than currently forecast, which would cause greater
interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico.

Earl continues to move westward at about 275/07 kt. This general
motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours, and Earl is
expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and
Alvarado, Mexico within the next hour. The official forecast track
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies slightly north of
the consensus model, TVCN.

The main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that
could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of
Central America and southeastern Mexico.  The Mexican Weather
Service (SMN) recently relayed reports of additional rainfall totals
of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) since 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning
across portions of south-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 19.0N  95.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR VERACRUZ
 12H  06/1200Z 19.0N  96.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/0000Z 19.0N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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