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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours
ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast
quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central
pressure of 1002 mb.  Another Air Force plane will be in Earl
tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The
satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day,
and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial
intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a
little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some
strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize.

It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is
now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is
embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge.
This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to
west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across
Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After
that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the
Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good
confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very
closely follows the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 16.4N  81.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 16.5N  83.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.0N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 17.5N  88.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 18.0N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1800Z 19.0N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/1800Z 20.0N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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