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TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
200 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015

Sandra was decapitated by very strong upper-level winds, and now
consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. A
perfect ASCAT pass over the cyclone at 0454 UTC indicates that the
winds have decreased to 35 kt, and this is the value assigned
to the initial intensity.

Since the shear is anticipated to increase further, additional
weakening is forecast. Sandra is expected to become a remnant
low late Saturday or early Sunday before it moves near the
coast of Mexico.

The shallow swirl has been moving little during the past several
hours. However, it should begin to move toward the north and
north-northeast embedded within the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one and very close to the
consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.

Given that Sandra is forecast to weaken, the Government of Mexico
has discontinued the tropical storm warnings. However, heavy rains
are still expected over a large part of west-central Mexico.
Furthermore, the remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated
with Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event
over portions of the south-central United States. For more
information, please see products from the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 21.4N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 22.6N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 24.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 26.5N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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