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TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015

Dry air and southwesterly shear has taken its toll on the tropical
cyclone since yesterday.  Deep convection associated with Rick has
become well separated from the low-level center and diminished
overnight, with the tropical cyclone becoming a swirl of mostly
low- to mid-level clouds.  The initial wind speed remains 30 kt,
which is a blend of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB.
Increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing sea surface temperatures
are expected to cause the cyclone to spin down during the next
couple of days, and Rick is forecast to become a remnant low later
today.  The remnant circulation should dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Rick is moving northwestward or 305/8 kt.  The cyclone is predicted
to turn north-northwestward and northward during the next 24 to 36
hours as it is steered between a shortwave trough to its west and a
low- to mid-level ridge over western Mexico.  After that time, the
low-level steering currents are expected to weaken, and the remnant
low should become nearly stationary.  The updated NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 17.8N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 18.6N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 19.7N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 20.5N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 21.0N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 20.7N 119.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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