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TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
800 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015

Rick remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone, with the low-level
center exposed to the northwest of a small area of deep convection.
The initial wind speed estimate remains 35 kt, following the
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising
if the system were a little weaker.  The continued influence of dry
stable air and an increase in shear should prevent strengthening,
or cause some weakening, of Rick during the next day or so.  In
about 2 days, Rick is forecast to become a remnant low when it
is expected to be over cool waters and in hostile atmospheric
conditions.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest
consensus prediction.

Satellite fixes indicate that the center of Rick has moved a little
to the north and is slightly faster than the previous track, and
the latest initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt.  A motion toward
the west-northwest to northwest is expected during the next couple
of days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of
a mid-level ridge.  After that time, the shallow cyclone will likely
drift northwestward or northward when it becomes embedded in weak
steering currents.  The latest NHC track forecast is slightly to the
north of the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise
largely an update.  This forecast is in best agreement with GFEX, a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 16.7N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 17.0N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 17.4N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 18.2N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 19.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0000Z 21.0N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z 21.8N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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