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HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
100 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...PATRICIA WEAKENING BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 104.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...75 KM N OF APOZOLCO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning. The
Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Playa Perula.

A Tropical Storm Warning continues in effect from Playa Perula
eastward to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 104.0 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Patricia is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Rapid weakening is expected to
continue, and Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm
later this morning, and a tropical depression this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
across portions of the warning area and over inland areas,
especially in higher elevations, near the center through this
morning.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday.  These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  During the
past 24 hours, a rainfall total of 10.25 inches (260 mm) has been
reported at Nevado De Colima in Jalisco state.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels are expected to gradually subside
overnight but remain above normal through late today.  Near the
coast, large and destructive waves are forecast to continue
overnight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are likely to affect the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

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