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HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
700 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING FARTHER INLAND
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 104.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of San Blas to El Roblito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 104.9 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed
tonight and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Patricia should continue to move inland over southwestern Mexico.
Patricia is expected to move quickly north-northeastward across
western and northern Mexico through Saturday.

Satellite images indicate that Patricia has continued to weaken, and
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Patricia is forecast to
rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico and dissipate on
Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring across the hurricane
warning area.  Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread
across portions of the warning area.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area this evening.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
continue to  produce significant coastal flooding near and to the
right of where the center of Patricia made landfall.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart

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