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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN MEXICO TOMORROW...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 104.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning north
of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas and discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch from east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 104.6 West. Patricia is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and north is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast Friday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area Friday afternoon or evening.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.
Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, and Patricia is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through
landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late
tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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